Time Series Summary: Area Under Curve

 

Menu location: Analysis_Descriptive_Time Series Summary.

 

This function summarises serially sampled data as the area under the time-observation or time-concentration curve (Bland 2000, Wolfsegger 2007, Jaki & Wolfsegger 2009).

 

The methods presented here are more commonly applied to peaked data than to growth data (Matthews et al. 1990).

 

The area under the curve (AUC) is calculated using the linear trapezoidal rule for each subject. The mean AUC of a group is summarised with the standard deviation of the subjects' AUCs and its standard error SD/√n; the t interval uses n − 1 degrees of freedom (Bland 2000). The weighted variance of Wolfsegger 2007 equation 4 is for serial-sampling designs in which each subject contributes a single time point and is not used for complete profiles.

 

...where t 1-J are times of observations in a series from 1 to J, AUC is the area under the curve for the kth subject from baseline to the last measured time point, w are the weights applied to the observations (X), n is the number of observations at each time point,and sigma squared is the variance of the observations at each time point.

 

For the t interval of a group's mean AUC the degrees of freedom are n − 1, where n is the number of subjects in the group; for the comparison of two groups the Welch-Satterthwaite degrees of freedom are df = (v1 + v2)² / [v1²/(n1 − 1) + v2²/(n2 − 1)], where v = SD²/n is the variance of each group's mean AUC calculated from the subjects' AUCs.

 

A bootstrap-t confidence interval may also be calculated: whole subjects (each with their observations at every time point) are resampled with replacement within the group; for each bootstrap sample the mean AUC and its standard error SE* = SD*/sqrt(n) are calculated from the resampled subjects' AUCs and the standardised statistic t* = (AUC - AUC*)/SE* is collected; the alpha/2 and 1-alpha/2 centiles of these t* values are then used to form the interval from AUC + t*(alpha/2) SE to AUC + t*(1-alpha/2) SE.

 

When there are two groups the AUCs are compared using a two sample t test on the subjects' AUCs with unequal variances (Welch, Satterthwaite degrees of freedom). A bootstrap t test is also performed resampling whole subjects within each group.

 

Example

From Bland (2000).

Test workbook (Other worksheet: Group, Time, Zidovudine, Patient).

 

Blood levels of zidovudine or AZT in patients a different times after oral dosing, comparing those with and without malabsorbtion:

Group

Time Zidovudine Patient

Malabsorbtion

0 0.08 1
Malabsorbtion 15 13.15 1
Malabsorbtion 30 5.70 1
Malabsorbtion 45 3.22 1
Malabsorbtion 60 2.69 1
Malabsorbtion 90 1.91 1
Malabsorbtion 120 1.72 1
Malabsorbtion 150 1.22 1
Malabsorbtion 180 1.15 1
Malabsorbtion 240 0.71 1
Malabsorbtion 300 0.43 1
Malabsorbtion 360 0.32 1
Malabsorbtion 0 0.08 2
Malabsorbtion 15 0.08 2
Malabsorbtion 30 0.14 2
Malabsorbtion 45 2.10 2
Malabsorbtion 60 6.37 2
Malabsorbtion 90 4.89 2
Malabsorbtion 120 2.11 2
Malabsorbtion 150 1.40 2
Malabsorbtion 180 1.42 2
Malabsorbtion 240 0.72 2
Malabsorbtion 300 0.39 2
Malabsorbtion 360 0.28 2
... ... ... ...

 

To analyse these data using StatsDirect you must first enter them into a workbook or open the test workbook. Then select Time Series Summary from the Descriptive section of the Analysis menu.

 

Time Series Summary

 

Group: Malabsorbtion

 

Time Observations Mean SD SE Median IQR
0 9 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00
15 9 3.06 4.44 1.48 0.64 4.20
30 9 4.18 3.17 1.06 3.53 4.37
45 9 3.41 1.94 0.65 3.22 3.31
60 9 3.06 1.55 0.52 2.69 1.28
90 9 2.19 1.10 0.37 1.91 0.48
120 9 1.56 0.67 0.22 1.41 0.87
150 9 1.11 0.48 0.16 1.09 0.33
180 9 0.80 0.33 0.11 0.73 0.30
240 9 0.45 0.22 0.07 0.43 0.28
300 9 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.22 0.22
360 9 0.20 0.12 0.04 0.18 0.17

 

Subject ID Baseline Min. observation Max. observation Time to max. Slope to max. AUC
1 0.08 0.08 13.15 15 0.87 667.425
2 0.08 0.08 6.37 60 0.10 569.625
3 0.08 0.08 3.47 45 0.09 306.000
4 0.08 0.08 3.30 60 0.05 298.200
5 0.08 0.08 8.27 30 0.27 617.850
6 0.08 0.08 4.92 30 0.16 256.275
7 0.08 0.08 9.29 30 0.31 527.475
8 0.08 0.08 2.54 120 0.02 388.875
9 0.08 0.08 6.28 45 0.13 505.875

 

Subjects: 9

Total (mean per time point) observations: 108 (9)

Mean (SD) area under curve (AUC): 459.73 (151.28)

SE of mean AUC: 50.43

95% t-interval for mean AUC: 343.45 to 576.01

95% bootstrap-t interval for mean AUC (1000000 iterations, seed 2944296): 335.19 to 575.80

95% z-interval for mean AUC: 360.90 to 558.56

Median (IQR) area under curve: 505.88 (263.63)

Median (IQR) time to maximum: 45 (30)

Median (IQR) slope to maximum: 0.13 (0.18)

Mean (SD) slope to maximum: 0.22 (0.26)

 

Group: Normal

 

Time Observations Mean SD SE Median IQR
0 5 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.08 0
15 5 6.98 4.87 2.18 6.72 6.26
30 5 10.73 5.63 2.52 7.28 8.75
45 5 4.83 1.94 0.87 3.90 1.07
60 5 3.69 1.56 0.70 2.97 2.79
90 5 3.49 2.44 1.09 1.95 3.06
120 5 2.14 1.76 0.79 1.46 0.85
150 5 1.72 1.23 0.55 1.49 0.51
180 5 1.27 0.77 0.35 1.18 0.51
240 5 0.71 0.41 0.18 0.72 0.2
300 5 0.41 0.22 0.10 0.41 0.12
360 5 0.25 0.11 0.05 0.28 0.04

 

Subject ID Baseline Min. observation Max. observation Time to max. Slope to max. AUC
10 0.08 0.08 16.02 30 0.53 919.875
11 0.08 0.08 6.72 15 0.44 599.850
12 0.08 0.08 9.98 15 0.66 499.500
13 0.08 0.08 7.27 30 0.24 472.875
14 0.08 0.08 17.61 30 0.58

1377.975

 

Subjects: 5

Total (mean per time point) observations: 60 (5)

Mean (SD) area under curve (AUC): 774.02 (381.58)

SE of mean AUC: 170.65

95% t-interval for mean AUC: 300.22 to 1,247.81

95% bootstrap-t interval for mean AUC (1000000 iterations, seed 2944296): 448.85 to 2,699.11

95% z-interval for mean AUC: 439.55 to 1,108.48

Median (IQR) area under curve: 599.85 (420.38)

Median (IQR) time to maximum: 30 (15)

Median (IQR) slope to maximum: 0.53 (0.14)

Mean (SD) slope to maximum: 0.49 (0.16)

 

AUC Distribution

 

R-square for AUC vs. normal scores: 0.80

 

R-square for log(AUC) vs. normal scores: 0.94

 

Group comparison: Malabsorbtion vs. Normal

 

Welch t (SE of difference): -1.77 (177.94)

DF (Satterthwaite): 4.71

Two sided P = 0.1412

AUC difference (95% CI): -314.28 (-780.27 to 151.70)

Bootstrapped with 1000000 iterations, seed 2944296

Two sided bootstrap P = 0.1809

95% bootstrap-t interval: -1,240.73 to 35.45